The Jacksonville Jaguars were ready to take a big step forward last season but ultimately plunked themselves down on a barstool and let the rest of the NFL grind’em down to just a 3-14 record.
The Urban Meyer experiment will go down as one of the biggest coaching flops in pro sports. On the bright side: it led the franchise to new head coach Doug Pederson.
The former Super Bowl winner is an ideal contrast to Meyer and a great fit, known as a “player’s coach” with experience at every level, including as a pro quarterback. That will work wonders for former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who got a sideways entry into NFL life.
Is it safe to be optimistic about the Jags? Find out in our Jacksonville Jaguars 2022 betting preview.
Jacksonville Jaguars futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +10,000 |
| To win conference | +5,000 |
| To win division | +925 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6.5 (Under -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +425 / No -550 |
Best futures bet: Over 6.5 wins (+110)
The Jaguars were a sleeper among sharp bettors last summer, but Meyer quickly quashed those opinions. Optimism is once again rearing its ugly head in Jacksonville, with the Jaguars’ win total jumping from 6 (Over -120) to 6.5 (Under -130) across the futures markets this summer.
Jacksonville’s strength of schedule in the opening seven weeks sets them up for success — depending on how quickly this offense gels — and the AFC South overall is entering a down year, with the Colts on another QB, Tennessee bound for regression, and Houston being Houston.
Honestly, the key to getting Over six wins is taking both games against the Texans, which may not be as simple as it sounds (see Spot Bet below). Those betting the Over, buckle up: Win No. 7 will likely come down to the final two weeks of the season (at Houston and vs. Tennessee).
Jacksonville Jaguars betting overview
What will win bets: Coaching
You almost have to take much of 2021 and toss it in the trash when it comes to capping the Jaguars. Sure, Meyer was shown the door after going 2-11, but it wasn’t the win/loss record that got him fired. It was the piles and piles of horse shit he heaped on this franchise.
Pederson is perhaps the best coaching hire in 2022. His experience, preparation, and style, along with existing talent and Jacksonville’s offseason additions, are already shifting the culture in limited OTAs.
Before they even stepped on the field, the Jags were behind the eight ball from a strategy standpoint every week under Meyer. Pederson and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell bring order, experience, and accountability to both sides of the ball.
What will lose bets: Growing pains
This is the third head coach for Jacksonville in three years and you could argue that the 2021 season was detrimental to the progression of the Jags’ youngsters, leaving Pederson to pick up the slack left by the former coaching staff.
The offensive line has plenty of new faces and switches to a wide zone blocking scheme. Lawrence has a new group of receivers to gel with, and the defense anchors itself in the 3-4 after running some hybrid nonsense in 2021.
The opening eight weeks of 2022 has the Jaguars racking up the frequent flyer miles, sending Jacksonville on the road in five of the first eight games, concluding with the annual overseas stop in London in Week 8.
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Jacksonville Jaguars game-by-game odds
Jags went 5-12 ATS last year, were favorites only twice (both games with Houston), and caught more than four points in 11 of their 17 games (4-7 ATS). The 2022 lookahead lines have Jacksonville at least equalling its three wins from last season but bookmakers also have some tighter spreads on tap, with five games in the +4 and shorter range.
One thing I did notice when sizing up the Jaguars’ spreads from the late spring vs. lookahead lines released later in the summer: oddsmakers are a little more bullish on Jacksonville’s power rating — at least in the first half of the schedule. The Jaguars are out there as bigger faves and shorter dogs in that span.
Four of Jacksonville’s ATS victories last year came when getting more than a touchdown and big dogs of +7.5 or higher finished a lousy 32-47-3 ATS in 2021 (41%). The Jaguars are dogs of +7.5 or more in only two games this season.
| 1 | @ Washington | +3.5 | 44 |
| 2 | vs. Indianapolis | +4.5 | 45.5 |
| 3 | @ L.A. Chargers | +9 | 49.5 |
| 4 | @ Philadelphia | +6.5 | 47.5 |
| 5 | vs. Houston | -4 | 45.5 |
| 6 | @ Indianapolis | +7 | 46 |
| 7 | vs. New York Giants | -2 | 45.5 |
| 8 | vs. Denver (UK) | +6 | 47 |
| 9 | vs. Las Vegas | +3 | 49 |
| 10 | @ Kansas City | +11 | 49 |
| 11 | BYE | ||
| 12 | vs. Baltimore | +4.5 | 47.5 |
| 13 | @ Detroit | +2.5 | 47.5 |
| 14 | @ Tennessee | +6.5 | 46.5 |
| 15 | vs. Dallas | +4 | 48.5 |
| 16 | @ New York Jets | +2.5 | 45 |
| 17 | @ Houston | -1 | 45.5 |
| 18 | vs. Tennessee | +3 | 45.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
We’ve seen a lot of Year 2 quarterbacks take leaps, and I could see Lawrence being the next. It would not stun me if Jacksonville ended up finishing second in the AFC South.
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